Down-to-down efficiency
South Florida offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
South FloridaatUTSA
South Florida24
UTSA31
CALLED
SharpTake projected UTSA at 52%. UTSA won.
ProjectedUTSA by 0.5
ActualUTSA by 7
Difference6.5 pts
Market spreadUTSA -5.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: South Florida +5.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
South Florida 48%UTSA 52%
SharpTake projects UTSA to win.
UTSAProjected winner
52%Win probability
UTSA by 0.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans UTSA
UTSA's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors UTSA. South Florida's down-to-down efficiency pushes the other way.
Last season's results
UTSA advantage
Recent scoring performance
South Florida offset
Overall team quality
South Florida offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UTSA explosive plays
EDGEUTSA offenseSouth Florida defense
UTSA creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while South Florida allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.319Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.315Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
South Florida finishing drives
EDGESouth Florida offenseUTSA defense
South Florida scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while UTSA allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.45 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.20 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEUTSA offenseSouth Florida defense
UTSA gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while South Florida allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 44.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
South Florida team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
UTSA team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.