Overall team quality
Tulane offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
TulaneatArmy
Tulane17
Army20
CALLED
SharpTake projected Army at 66%. Army won.
ProjectedArmy by 6.5
ActualArmy by 3
Difference3.5 pts
Market spreadArmy -4
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Army -4
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Tulane 34%Army 66%
SharpTake projects Army to win.
ArmyProjected winner
66%Win probability
Army by 6.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Army
Army's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Army. Army also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Tulane's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Army advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Army advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Army advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tulane pass game
CLEAR EDGETulane offenseArmy defense
Tulane gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Army allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulane.
Passing Success Rate · 47.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 46.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Tulane explosive plays
CLEAR EDGETulane offenseArmy defense
Tulane creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Army allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Army.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.175Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.109Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Army disruption vs Tulane
CLEAR EDGETulane disruption allowedArmy disruption created
Tulane avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Army creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulane.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Tulane team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Army team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.