Overall team quality
Strong North Texas advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
CharlotteatNorth Texas
Charlotte10
North Texas50
CALLED
SharpTake projected North Texas at 96%. North Texas won.
ProjectedNorth Texas by 29.0
ActualNorth Texas by 40
Difference11.0 pts
Market spreadNorth Texas -27.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: North Texas -27.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Charlotte 4%North Texas 96%
SharpTake projects North Texas to win.
North TexasProjected winner
96%Win probability
North Texas by 29.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans North Texas
North Texas's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors North Texas. North Texas also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Charlotte's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong North Texas advantage
Last season's results
Charlotte offset
Current season's results
Charlotte offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
North Texas staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGENorth Texas offenseCharlotte defense
North Texas gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Charlotte allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Texas.
Offensive Success Rate · 51.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 52.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
North Texas run game
CLEAR EDGENorth Texas offenseCharlotte defense
North Texas gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Charlotte allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Texas.
Rushing Success Rate · 51.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 52.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
North Texas pass game
CLEAR EDGENorth Texas offenseCharlotte defense
North Texas gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Charlotte allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Texas.
Passing Success Rate · 51.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 52.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Charlotte team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
North Texas team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.