Overall team quality
Strong East Carolina advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
RiceatEast Carolina
Rice12
East Carolina28
CALLED
SharpTake projected East Carolina at 84%. East Carolina won.
ProjectedEast Carolina by 15.0
ActualEast Carolina by 16
Difference1.0 pts
Market spreadEast Carolina -10
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: East Carolina -10
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Rice 16%East Carolina 84%
SharpTake projects East Carolina to win.
East CarolinaProjected winner
84%Win probability
East Carolina by 15.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans East Carolina
East Carolina's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors East Carolina. East Carolina also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Rice's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
East Carolina advantage
Last season's results
Rice offset
Current season's results
Rice offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Rice run game
CLEAR EDGERice offenseEast Carolina defense
Rice gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while East Carolina allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors East Carolina.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 36.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Rice staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGERice offenseEast Carolina defense
Rice gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while East Carolina allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors East Carolina.
Offensive Success Rate · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 37.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
East Carolina disruption vs Rice
CLEAR EDGERice disruption allowedEast Carolina disruption created
Rice avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while East Carolina creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors East Carolina.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Rice team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
East Carolina team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.