Overall team quality
Strong Memphis advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
UABatMemphis
UAB13
Memphis38
CALLED
SharpTake projected Memphis at 82%. Memphis won.
ProjectedMemphis by 14.0
ActualMemphis by 25
Difference11.0 pts
Market spreadMemphis -15.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: UAB +15.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
UAB 18%Memphis 82%
SharpTake projects Memphis to win.
MemphisProjected winner
82%Win probability
Memphis by 14.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Memphis
Memphis's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Memphis. Memphis also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while UAB's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Memphis advantage
Last season's results
UAB offset
Current season's results
UAB offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Memphis run game
CLEAR EDGEMemphis offenseUAB defense
Memphis gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while UAB allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Memphis.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 49.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Memphis finishing drives
CLEAR EDGEMemphis offenseUAB defense
Memphis scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while UAB allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Memphis.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.41 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.71 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Memphis staying on schedule
EDGEMemphis offenseUAB defense
Memphis gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while UAB allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Memphis.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 48.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
UAB team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Memphis team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.