Overall team quality
Strong Navy advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
TulsaatNavy
Tulsa26
Navy34
CALLED
SharpTake projected Navy at 79%. Navy won.
ProjectedNavy by 14.0
ActualNavy by 8
Difference6.0 pts
Market spreadNavy -3
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Navy -3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Tulsa 21%Navy 79%
SharpTake projects Navy to win.
NavyProjected winner
79%Win probability
Navy by 14.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Navy
Navy's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Navy. Navy also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's results, while Tulsa's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Tulsa offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Navy advantage
Current season's results
Navy advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tulsa disruption vs Navy
CLEAR EDGENavy disruption allowedTulsa disruption created
Navy avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Navy.
Havoc Rate allowed · 9.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Navy staying on schedule
EDGENavy offenseTulsa defense
Navy gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Navy.
Offensive Success Rate · 49.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Navy run game
EDGENavy offenseTulsa defense
Navy gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Navy.
Rushing Success Rate · 51.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Tulsa team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Navy team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.