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SharpTake projected East Carolina at 71%. UAB won.
ProjectedEast Carolina by 8.5
ActualUAB by 13
Difference21.5 pts
Market spreadEast Carolina -4.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: East Carolina -4.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
East Carolina 71%UAB 29%
SharpTake projects East Carolina to win.
East CarolinaProjected winner
71%Win probability
East Carolina by 8.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
East Carolina staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGE
East Carolina offenseUAB defense
East Carolina gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while UAB allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors East Carolina.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 48.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
East Carolina pass game
CLEAR EDGE
East Carolina offenseUAB defense
East Carolina gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while UAB allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors East Carolina.
Passing Success Rate · 47.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
East Carolina disruption allowedUAB disruption created
East Carolina avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while UAB creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors East Carolina.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
East Carolina position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.UAB position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 15, 2026 · 1:50 AM ET