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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Memphis 62%Tulane 38%
SharpTake projects Memphis to win.
MemphisProjected winner
62%Win probability
Memphis by 4.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tulane pass game
CLEAR EDGE
Tulane offenseMemphis defense
Tulane gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Memphis allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulane.
Passing Success Rate · 47.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Memphis gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Tulane allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Memphis.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Memphis gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Tulane allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Memphis position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Tulane position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 16, 2026 · 1:47 AM ET