Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Florida Atlantic 27%Army 73%
SharpTake projects Army to win.
ArmyProjected winner
73%Win probability
Army by 9.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Florida Atlantic disruption vs Army
CLEAR EDGE
Army disruption allowedFlorida Atlantic disruption created
Army avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Florida Atlantic creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Army.
Havoc Rate allowed · 8.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Army run game
EDGE
Army offenseFlorida Atlantic defense
Army gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Florida Atlantic allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Army.
Rushing Success Rate · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Army creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Florida Atlantic allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Florida Atlantic.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.118Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.291Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Florida Atlantic position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Army position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET