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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Navy 33%UTSA 67%
SharpTake projects UTSA to win.
UTSAProjected winner
67%Win probability
UTSA by 7.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UTSA explosive plays
EDGE
UTSA offenseNavy defense
UTSA creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Navy allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.319Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.337Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Navy disruption vs UTSA
EDGE
UTSA disruption allowedNavy disruption created
UTSA avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Navy creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.
Havoc Rate allowed · 16.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
UTSA finishing drives
EDGE
UTSA offenseNavy defense
UTSA scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while Navy allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.23 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.20 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Navy position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.UTSA position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET