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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Tulsa 57%Rice 43%
SharpTake projects Tulsa to win.
TulsaProjected winner
57%Win probability
Tulsa by 2.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Rice staying on schedule
EDGE
Rice offenseTulsa defense
Rice gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Offensive Success Rate · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Rice run game
EDGE
Rice offenseTulsa defense
Rice gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Tulsa creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Rice allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.260Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.489Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Tulsa position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Rice position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET