SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

Kent StateatSouth Florida

Sat, Oct. 17 · 7:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium

Kent State2
South Florida29
CALLED

SharpTake projected South Florida at 94%. South Florida won.

ProjectedSouth Florida by 25.5
ActualSouth Florida by 27
Difference1.5 pts
Market spreadSouth Florida -20.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: South Florida -20.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects South Florida to win.

South FloridaProjected winner
94%Win probability
South Florida by 25.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Kent State staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Kent State offenseSouth Florida defense

Kent State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while South Florida allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.

Offensive Success Rate · 34.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Kent State run game

CLEAR EDGE
Kent State offenseSouth Florida defense

Kent State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while South Florida allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.

Rushing Success Rate · 33.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

South Florida finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
South Florida offenseKent State defense

South Florida scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while Kent State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.

Points per scoring opportunity · 4.45 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.29 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Kent State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. South Florida team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Kent State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
South Florida position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET

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