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Thu, Oct. 22 · 7:30 PM ET · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
East Carolina34
Memphis41
CALLED
SharpTake projected Memphis at 76%. Memphis won.
ProjectedMemphis by 10.5
ActualMemphis by 7
Difference3.5 pts
Market spreadMemphis -10.5
Vs spreadNO EDGESharpTake Pick: No edge
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
East Carolina 24%Memphis 76%
SharpTake projects Memphis to win.
MemphisProjected winner
76%Win probability
Memphis by 10.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
East Carolina pass game
EDGE
East Carolina offenseMemphis defense
East Carolina gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Memphis allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors East Carolina.
Passing Success Rate · 47.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
East Carolina creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Memphis allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Memphis.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.138Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.290Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
East Carolina disruption vs Memphis
EDGE
Memphis disruption allowedEast Carolina disruption created
Memphis avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while East Carolina creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors East Carolina.
Havoc Rate allowed · 14.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
East Carolina position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Memphis position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 22, 2026 · 2:03 AM ET