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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Army 66%Tulsa 34%
SharpTake projects Army to win.
ArmyProjected winner
66%Win probability
Army by 6.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tulsa disruption vs Army
CLEAR EDGE
Army disruption allowedTulsa disruption created
Army avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Army.
Havoc Rate allowed · 8.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Tulsa explosive plays
EDGE
Tulsa offenseArmy defense
Tulsa creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Army allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Army.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.260Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.109Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Tulsa offenseArmy defense
Tulsa gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Army allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Army position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Tulsa position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 23, 2026 · 1:59 AM ET