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SharpTake projected Florida Atlantic at 71%. Florida Atlantic won.
ProjectedFlorida Atlantic by 8.5
ActualFlorida Atlantic by 2
Difference6.5 pts
Market spreadFlorida Atlantic -9.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Rice +9.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Rice 29%Florida Atlantic 71%
SharpTake projects Florida Atlantic to win.
Florida AtlanticProjected winner
71%Win probability
Florida Atlantic by 8.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Florida Atlantic explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Florida Atlantic offenseRice defense
Florida Atlantic creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Rice allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Florida Atlantic.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.389Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.489Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Rice staying on schedule
EDGE
Rice offenseFlorida Atlantic defense
Rice gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Florida Atlantic allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Florida Atlantic.
Offensive Success Rate · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Rice pass game
EDGE
Rice offenseFlorida Atlantic defense
Rice gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Florida Atlantic allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Florida Atlantic.
Passing Success Rate · 31.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rice position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Florida Atlantic position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET