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Sat, Oct. 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
North Texas49
Navy39
CALLED
SharpTake projected North Texas at 63%. North Texas won.
ProjectedNorth Texas by 5.0
ActualNorth Texas by 10
Difference5.0 pts
Market spreadNorth Texas -3
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: North Texas -3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
North Texas 63%Navy 37%
SharpTake projects North Texas to win.
North TexasProjected winner
63%Win probability
North Texas by 5.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Navy disruption vs North Texas
CLEAR EDGE
North Texas disruption allowedNavy disruption created
North Texas avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Navy creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Texas.
Havoc Rate allowed · 11.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Navy run game
CLEAR EDGE
Navy offenseNorth Texas defense
Navy gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while North Texas allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Navy.
Rushing Success Rate · 51.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
North Texas scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Navy allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Texas.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.98 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.20 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
North Texas position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Navy position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET