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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
UTSA 46%Tulane 54%
SharpTake projects Tulane to win.
TulaneProjected winner
54%Win probability
Tulane by 1.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UTSA pass game
CLEAR EDGE
UTSA offenseTulane defense
UTSA gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Tulane allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.
Passing Success Rate · 45.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 46.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
UTSA gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Tulane allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 44.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
Tulane offenseUTSA defense
Tulane gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while UTSA allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 42.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
UTSA position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Tulane position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET