SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

Florida AtlanticatNorth Texas

Thu, Oct. 29 · 7:30 PM ET · DATCU Stadium

SharpTake projects North Texas to win.

North TexasProjected winner
88%Win probability
North Texas by 19.0Projected margin
SharpTakeNorth Texas by 19.0
Market SpreadNorth Texas -13.75

SharpTake is 5.25 points higher on North Texas.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

North Texas run game

CLEAR EDGE
North Texas offenseFlorida Atlantic defense

North Texas gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Florida Atlantic allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Texas.

Rushing Success Rate · 51.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

North Texas finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
North Texas offenseFlorida Atlantic defense

North Texas scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Florida Atlantic allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Texas.

Points per scoring opportunity · 4.98 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.58 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Florida Atlantic disruption vs North Texas

CLEAR EDGE
North Texas disruption allowedFlorida Atlantic disruption created

North Texas avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Florida Atlantic creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Texas.

Havoc Rate allowed · 11.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Florida Atlantic team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. North Texas team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Florida Atlantic position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
North Texas position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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