SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

TulaneatCharlotte

Fri, Oct. 30 · 7:00 PM ET · Jerry Richardson Stadium

SharpTake projects Tulane to win.

TulaneProjected winner
84%Win probability
Tulane by 15.5Projected margin
SharpTakeTulane by 15.5
Market SpreadTulane -10.25

SharpTake is 5.25 points higher on Tulane.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Tulane pass game

CLEAR EDGE
Tulane offenseCharlotte defense

Tulane gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Charlotte allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulane.

Passing Success Rate · 47.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 52.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Tulane explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Tulane offenseCharlotte defense

Tulane creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Charlotte allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Charlotte.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.175Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.037Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Charlotte disruption vs Tulane

CLEAR EDGE
Tulane disruption allowedCharlotte disruption created

Tulane avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Charlotte creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulane.

Havoc Rate allowed · 12.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 10.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Tulane team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Charlotte team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Tulane position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Charlotte position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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