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Sat, Oct. 31 · 8:00 PM ET · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Army 42%Memphis 58%
SharpTake projects Memphis to win.
MemphisProjected winner
58%Win probability
Memphis by 3.0Projected margin
SharpTakeMemphis by 3.0
Market SpreadMemphis -6
Market is 3.0 points higher on Memphis.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Memphis run game
EDGE
Memphis offenseArmy defense
Memphis gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Army allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Memphis.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 44.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Army creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Memphis allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Memphis.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.118Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.290Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Army disruption vs Memphis
EDGE
Memphis disruption allowedArmy disruption created
Memphis avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Army creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Memphis.
Havoc Rate allowed · 14.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Army position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Memphis position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET