SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

UABatSouth Florida

Sat, Oct. 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium

SharpTake projects South Florida to win.

South FloridaProjected winner
77%Win probability
South Florida by 11.5Projected margin
SharpTakeSouth Florida by 11.5
Market SpreadSouth Florida -7.75

SharpTake is 3.75 points higher on South Florida.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

South Florida staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
South Florida offenseUAB defense

South Florida gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while UAB allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.

Offensive Success Rate · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 48.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

South Florida run game

CLEAR EDGE
South Florida offenseUAB defense

South Florida gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while UAB allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.

Rushing Success Rate · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 49.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

South Florida pass game

CLEAR EDGE
South Florida offenseUAB defense

South Florida gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while UAB allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.

Passing Success Rate · 45.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

UAB team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. South Florida team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

UAB position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
South Florida position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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