Overall team quality
Nevada offset
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee's down-to-down efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee also has the edge in running-game efficiency, while Nevada's overall quality pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Middle Tennessee advantage
Running-game efficiency
Slight Middle Tennessee advantage
Big-play ability
Nevada offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Run game
NO EDGENevada offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Nevada gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 40.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGENevada offenseMiddle Tennessee defense
Nevada gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Middle Tennessee allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 35.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Disruption
NO EDGENevada disruption allowedMiddle Tennessee disruption created
Nevada avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Middle Tennessee creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Havoc Rate allowed · 17.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 15.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Nevada team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Middle Tennessee team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.