Overall team quality
Strong New Mexico advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 1
Central MichiganatNew Mexico
Central Michigan7
New Mexico38
CALLED
SharpTake projected New Mexico at 79%. New Mexico won.
ProjectedNew Mexico by 14.5
ActualNew Mexico by 31
Difference16.5 pts
Market spreadNew Mexico -10.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: New Mexico -10.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Central Michigan 21%New Mexico 79%
SharpTake projects New Mexico to win.
New MexicoProjected winner
79%Win probability
New Mexico by 14.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans New Mexico
New Mexico's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors New Mexico. New Mexico also has the edge in running-game efficiency and passing efficiency, while Central Michigan's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Central Michigan offset
Running-game efficiency
Slight New Mexico advantage
Passing efficiency
Slight New Mexico advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Central Michigan run game
EDGECentral Michigan offenseNew Mexico defense
Central Michigan gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico.
Rushing Success Rate · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explosive plays
NO EDGENew Mexico offenseCentral Michigan defense
New Mexico creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Central Michigan allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.231Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.154Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Disruption
NO EDGECentral Michigan disruption allowedNew Mexico disruption created
Central Michigan avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while New Mexico creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Havoc Rate allowed · 15.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Central Michigan team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
New Mexico team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.