Overall team quality
Hawai'i offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Hawai‘iatWyoming
Hawai‘i10
Wyoming27
CALLED
SharpTake projected Wyoming at 53%. Wyoming won.
ProjectedWyoming by 1.0
ActualWyoming by 17
Difference16.0 pts
Market spreadHawai‘i -2.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Wyoming +2.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Hawai‘i 47%Wyoming 53%
SharpTake projects Wyoming to win.
WyomingProjected winner
53%Win probability
Wyoming by 1.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Wyoming
Wyoming's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Wyoming. Wyoming also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Hawai'i's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Wyoming advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Wyoming advantage
Running-game efficiency
Slight Wyoming advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Hawai'i disruption vs Wyoming
EDGEWyoming disruption allowedHawai‘i disruption created
Wyoming avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Hawai‘i creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Hawai‘i.
Havoc Rate allowed · 19.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 16.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Wyoming finishing drives
EDGEWyoming offenseHawai‘i defense
Wyoming scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Hawai‘i allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Hawai‘i.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.90 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.35 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEWyoming offenseHawai‘i defense
Wyoming gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Hawai‘i allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Hawai‘i team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Wyoming team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.