Current season's results
Northern Illinois offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Northern IllinoisatGeorgia State
Northern Illinois14
Georgia State35
CALLED
SharpTake projected Georgia State at 84%. Georgia State won.
ProjectedGeorgia State by 15.0
ActualGeorgia State by 21
Difference6.0 pts
Market spreadGeorgia State -10.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Georgia State -10.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Northern Illinois 16%Georgia State 84%
SharpTake projects Georgia State to win.
Georgia StateProjected winner
84%Win probability
Georgia State by 15.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Georgia State
Georgia State's down-to-down efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Georgia State. Georgia State also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and recent scoring performance, while Northern Illinois's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Georgia State advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Georgia State advantage
Recent scoring performance
Georgia State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Georgia State disruption vs Northern Illinois
EDGENorthern Illinois disruption allowedGeorgia State disruption created
Northern Illinois avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Georgia State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Northern Illinois.
Havoc Rate allowed · 13.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEGeorgia State offenseNorthern Illinois defense
Georgia State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Northern Illinois allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGENorthern Illinois offenseGeorgia State defense
Northern Illinois gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Georgia State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Northern Illinois team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Georgia State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.