Last season's results
San José State offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
San José StateatHawai‘i
San José State20
Hawai‘i16
MISSED
SharpTake projected Hawai‘i at 51%. San José State won.
ProjectedHawai‘i by 0.5
ActualSan José State by 4
Difference4.5 pts
Market spreadHawai‘i -2.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: San José State +2.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
San José State 49%Hawai‘i 51%
SharpTake projects Hawai‘i to win.
Hawai‘iProjected winner
51%Win probability
Hawai‘i by 0.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Hawai'i
Hawai'i's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Hawai'i. Hawai'i also has the edge in current season's results, while San José State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
San José State offset
Overall team quality
Hawai'i advantage
Current season's results
Hawai'i advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
San José State disruption vs Hawai'i
CLEAR EDGEHawai‘i disruption allowedSan José State disruption created
Hawai‘i avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while San José State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Hawai‘i.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
San José State finishing drives
EDGESan José State offenseHawai‘i defense
San José State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Hawai‘i allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Hawai‘i.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.77 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.35 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Run game
NO EDGESan José State offenseHawai‘i defense
San José State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Hawai‘i allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
San José State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Hawai‘i team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.