Overall team quality
Strong New Mexico advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
UTEPatNew Mexico
UTEP7
New Mexico61
CALLED
SharpTake projected New Mexico at 92%. New Mexico won.
ProjectedNew Mexico by 23.0
ActualNew Mexico by 54
Difference31.0 pts
Market spreadNew Mexico -23.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: UTEP +23.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
UTEP 8%New Mexico 92%
SharpTake projects New Mexico to win.
New MexicoProjected winner
92%Win probability
New Mexico by 23.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans New Mexico
New Mexico's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors New Mexico. New Mexico also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while UTEP's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
UTEP offset
Down-to-down efficiency
New Mexico advantage
Current season's scoring performance
New Mexico advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UTEP run game
CLEAR EDGEUTEP offenseNew Mexico defense
UTEP gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico.
Rushing Success Rate · 35.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
New Mexico disruption vs UTEP
CLEAR EDGEUTEP disruption allowedNew Mexico disruption created
UTEP avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
UTEP staying on schedule
EDGEUTEP offenseNew Mexico defense
UTEP gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors New Mexico.
Offensive Success Rate · 32.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 39.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
UTEP team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
New Mexico team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.