SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5

WyomingatNorth Dakota State

Sat, Oct. 3 · 3:30 PM ET · Fargodome

Wyoming0
North Dakota State28
CALLED

SharpTake projected North Dakota State at 75%. North Dakota State won.

ProjectedNorth Dakota State by 10.5
ActualNorth Dakota State by 28
Difference17.5 pts
Market spreadNorth Dakota State -17.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Wyoming +17.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects North Dakota State to win.

North Dakota StateProjected winner
75%Win probability
North Dakota State by 10.5Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans North Dakota State

North Dakota State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors North Dakota State. North Dakota State also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and big-play ability, while Wyoming's current season's results pushes the other way.

Overall team quality

Strong North Dakota State advantage

Current season's results

Wyoming offset

Current season's scoring performance

North Dakota State advantage

Big-play ability

North Dakota State advantage

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Matchup factors unavailable

Completed 2025 matchup evidence is unavailable for at least one team in this matchup.

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Wyoming team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. North Dakota State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Wyoming position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
North Dakota State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
  • At least one team lacks a usable prior season under this forecast model; the model's neutral prior treatment is used.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 3, 2026 · 3:30 PM ET

← Back to forecast board Recent results