Overall team quality
Strong Air Force advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Air ForceatNorthern Illinois
Air Force28
Northern Illinois7
CALLED
SharpTake projected Air Force at 71%. Air Force won.
ProjectedAir Force by 8.5
ActualAir Force by 21
Difference12.5 pts
Market spreadAir Force -7
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Air Force -7
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Air Force 71%Northern Illinois 29%
SharpTake projects Air Force to win.
Air ForceProjected winner
71%Win probability
Air Force by 8.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Air Force
Air Force's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Air Force. Air Force also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Northern Illinois's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Northern Illinois offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Air Force advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Air Force advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Northern Illinois disruption vs Air Force
CLEAR EDGEAir Force disruption allowedNorthern Illinois disruption created
Air Force avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Northern Illinois creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Air Force.
Havoc Rate allowed · 9.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 11.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Air Force staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEAir Force offenseNorthern Illinois defense
Air Force gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Northern Illinois allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Air Force.
Offensive Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Air Force run game
EDGEAir Force offenseNorthern Illinois defense
Air Force gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Northern Illinois allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Air Force.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Air Force team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Northern Illinois team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.