Overall team quality
Nevada advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
NevadaatUTEP
Nevada30
UTEP13
CALLED
SharpTake projected Nevada at 66%. Nevada won.
ProjectedNevada by 6.5
ActualNevada by 17
Difference10.5 pts
Market spreadNevada -10
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: UTEP +10
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Nevada 66%UTEP 34%
SharpTake projects Nevada to win.
NevadaProjected winner
66%Win probability
Nevada by 6.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Nevada
Nevada's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Nevada. Nevada also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance.
Down-to-down efficiency
Nevada advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Nevada advantage
Recent scoring performance
Nevada advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Nevada run game
CLEAR EDGENevada offenseUTEP defense
Nevada gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while UTEP allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTEP.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
UTEP staying on schedule
EDGEUTEP offenseNevada defense
UTEP gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Nevada allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Nevada.
Offensive Success Rate · 32.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
UTEP pass game
EDGEUTEP offenseNevada defense
UTEP gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Nevada allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Nevada.
Passing Success Rate · 31.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Nevada team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
UTEP team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.