Current season's results
Wyoming offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
WyomingatSan José State
Wyoming16
San José State13
MISSED
SharpTake projected San José State at 63%. Wyoming won.
ProjectedSan José State by 5.0
ActualWyoming by 3
Difference8.0 pts
Market spreadSan José State -4.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: San José State -4.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Wyoming 37%San José State 63%
SharpTake projects San José State to win.
San José StateProjected winner
63%Win probability
San José State by 5.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans San José State
San José State's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors San José State. San José State also has the edge in overall quality, while Wyoming's current season's results pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Slight San José State advantage
Overall team quality
Slight San José State advantage
Running-game efficiency
Wyoming offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
San José State finishing drives
CLEAR EDGESan José State offenseWyoming defense
San José State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Wyoming allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wyoming.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.77 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.77 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEWyoming offenseSan José State defense
Wyoming gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while San José State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGEWyoming offenseSan José State defense
Wyoming gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while San José State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Wyoming team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
San José State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.