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SharpTake projected New Mexico at 87%. New Mexico won.
ProjectedNew Mexico by 18.0
ActualNew Mexico by 11
Difference7.0 pts
Market spreadNew Mexico -14.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: New Mexico -14.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
New Mexico 87%Hawai‘i 13%
SharpTake projects New Mexico to win.
New MexicoProjected winner
87%Win probability
New Mexico by 18.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Hawai'i run game
EDGE
Hawai‘i offenseNew Mexico defense
Hawai‘i gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Hawai‘i creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.329Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.244Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Finishing drives
NO EDGE
Hawai‘i offenseNew Mexico defense
Hawai‘i scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while New Mexico allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.77 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.01 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
New Mexico position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Hawai‘i position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET