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Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Northern Illinois +7.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Northern Illinois 32%Wyoming 68%
SharpTake projects Wyoming to win.
WyomingProjected winner
68%Win probability
Wyoming by 7.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Northern Illinois staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGE
Northern Illinois offenseWyoming defense
Northern Illinois gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Wyoming allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wyoming.
Offensive Success Rate · 34.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Northern Illinois pass game
CLEAR EDGE
Northern Illinois offenseWyoming defense
Northern Illinois gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Wyoming allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wyoming.
Passing Success Rate · 27.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 37.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Northern Illinois scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams, while Wyoming allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wyoming.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.04 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.77 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Northern Illinois position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Wyoming position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET