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SharpTake projected San José State at 74%. San José State won.
ProjectedSan José State by 10.0
ActualSan José State by 13
Difference3.0 pts
Market spreadSan José State -6.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: San José State -6.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
San José State 74%UTEP 26%
SharpTake projects San José State to win.
San José StateProjected winner
74%Win probability
San José State by 10.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UTEP staying on schedule
EDGE
UTEP offenseSan José State defense
UTEP gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while San José State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors San José State.
Offensive Success Rate · 32.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
UTEP run game
EDGE
UTEP offenseSan José State defense
UTEP gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while San José State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors San José State.
Rushing Success Rate · 35.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
UTEP gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while San José State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors San José State.
Passing Success Rate · 31.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
San José State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.UTEP position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET