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SharpTake projected Air Force at 71%. Wyoming won.
ProjectedAir Force by 8.5
ActualWyoming by 14
Difference22.5 pts
Market spreadAir Force -6
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Air Force -6
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Air Force 71%Wyoming 29%
SharpTake projects Air Force to win.
Air ForceProjected winner
71%Win probability
Air Force by 8.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Wyoming disruption vs Air Force
CLEAR EDGE
Air Force disruption allowedWyoming disruption created
Air Force avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Wyoming creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Air Force.
Havoc Rate allowed · 9.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Wyoming pass game
EDGE
Wyoming offenseAir Force defense
Wyoming gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Air Force allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wyoming.
Passing Success Rate · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 53.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Wyoming gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Air Force allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 49.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Air Force position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Wyoming position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 23, 2026 · 1:59 AM ET