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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Hawai‘i 57%Northern Illinois 43%
SharpTake projects Hawai‘i to win.
Hawai‘iProjected winner
57%Win probability
Hawai‘i by 2.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Northern Illinois disruption vs Hawai'i
CLEAR EDGE
Hawai‘i disruption allowedNorthern Illinois disruption created
Hawai‘i avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Northern Illinois creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Hawai‘i.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 11.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Northern Illinois staying on schedule
EDGE
Northern Illinois offenseHawai‘i defense
Northern Illinois gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Hawai‘i allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Hawai‘i.
Offensive Success Rate · 34.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Northern Illinois pass game
EDGE
Northern Illinois offenseHawai‘i defense
Northern Illinois gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Hawai‘i allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Hawai‘i.
Passing Success Rate · 27.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Hawai‘i position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Northern Illinois position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET