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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
San José State 38%Nevada 62%
SharpTake projects Nevada to win.
NevadaProjected winner
62%Win probability
Nevada by 4.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Nevada offenseSan José State defense
Nevada gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while San José State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
San José State offenseNevada defense
San José State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Nevada allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Nevada gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while San José State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 35.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
San José State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Nevada position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET