Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

New MexicoatSan José State

Sat, Oct. 31 · 4:00 PM ET · CEFCU Stadium

SharpTake projects New Mexico to win.

New MexicoProjected winner
86%Win probability
New Mexico by 17.0Projected margin
SharpTakeNew Mexico by 17.0
Market SpreadNew Mexico -14.75

SharpTake is 2.25 points higher on New Mexico.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

San José State finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
San José State offenseNew Mexico defense

San José State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico.

Points per scoring opportunity · 2.77 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.01 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

San José State disruption vs New Mexico

EDGE
New Mexico disruption allowedSan José State disruption created

New Mexico avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while San José State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico.

Havoc Rate allowed · 14.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Staying on schedule

NO EDGE
San José State offenseNew Mexico defense

San José State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while New Mexico allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Offensive Success Rate · 43.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 39.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Position rooms

New Mexico position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
San José State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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