SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

Northern IllinoisatUNLV

Sat, Oct. 31 · 10:30 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium

SharpTake projects UNLV to win.

UNLVProjected winner
91%Win probability
UNLV by 21.5Projected margin
SharpTakeUNLV by 21.5
Market SpreadUNLV -23.75

Market is 2.25 points higher on UNLV.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

UNLV staying on schedule

EDGE
UNLV offenseNorthern Illinois defense

UNLV gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Northern Illinois allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UNLV.

Offensive Success Rate · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

UNLV run game

EDGE
UNLV offenseNorthern Illinois defense

UNLV gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Northern Illinois allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UNLV.

Rushing Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Northern Illinois pass game

EDGE
Northern Illinois offenseUNLV defense

Northern Illinois gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while UNLV allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors UNLV.

Passing Success Rate · 27.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Northern Illinois team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. UNLV team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Northern Illinois position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
UNLV position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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