Current season's results
NC State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
App StateatNC State
App State31
NC State41
CALLED
SharpTake projected NC State at 76%. NC State won.
ProjectedNC State by 12.5
ActualNC State by 10
Difference2.5 pts
Market spreadNC State -12.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: App State +12.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
App State 24%NC State 76%
SharpTake projects NC State to win.
NC StateProjected winner
76%Win probability
NC State by 12.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans NC State
NC State's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors NC State. NC State also has the edge in overall quality and down-to-down efficiency, while App State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Overall team quality
NC State advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
NC State advantage
Last season's results
App State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
NC State finishing drives
CLEAR EDGENC State offenseApp State defense
NC State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while App State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors NC State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.69 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.24 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGENC State offenseApp State defense
NC State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while App State allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGENC State offenseApp State defense
NC State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while App State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
App State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
NC State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.