SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 1

Jacksonville StateatNorth Dakota State

Sat, Aug. 29 · 5:30 PM ET · Fargodome

Jacksonville State7
North Dakota State33
MISSED

SharpTake projected Jacksonville State at 64%. North Dakota State won.

ProjectedJacksonville State by 5.5
ActualNorth Dakota State by 26
Difference31.5 pts
Market spreadNorth Dakota State -6.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Jacksonville State +6.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Jacksonville State to win.

Jacksonville StateProjected winner
64%Win probability
Jacksonville State by 5.5Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Jacksonville State. North Dakota State's record from last season pushes the other way.

Overall team quality

Strong Jacksonville State advantage

Last season's results

North Dakota State offset

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Matchup factors unavailable

Completed 2025 matchup evidence is unavailable for at least one team in this matchup.

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Jacksonville State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. North Dakota State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Jacksonville State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
North Dakota State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
  • Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
  • At least one team lacks a usable prior season under this forecast model; the model's neutral prior treatment is used.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Aug. 29, 2026 · 5:30 PM ET

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