Overall team quality
Strong New Mexico advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
New MexicoatNew Mexico State
New Mexico42
New Mexico State18
CALLED
SharpTake projected New Mexico at 75%. New Mexico won.
ProjectedNew Mexico by 10.5
ActualNew Mexico by 24
Difference13.5 pts
Market spreadNew Mexico -11.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: New Mexico State +11.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
New Mexico 75%New Mexico State 25%
SharpTake projects New Mexico to win.
New MexicoProjected winner
75%Win probability
New Mexico by 10.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans New Mexico
New Mexico's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors New Mexico. New Mexico also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while New Mexico State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
New Mexico State offset
Down-to-down efficiency
New Mexico advantage
Current season's results
New Mexico State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
New Mexico State run game
CLEAR EDGENew Mexico State offenseNew Mexico defense
New Mexico State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico.
Rushing Success Rate · 34.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
New Mexico disruption vs New Mexico State
CLEAR EDGENew Mexico State disruption allowedNew Mexico disruption created
New Mexico State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico.
Havoc Rate allowed · 20.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
New Mexico State finishing drives
EDGENew Mexico State offenseNew Mexico defense
New Mexico State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams, while New Mexico allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors New Mexico.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.21 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.01 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
New Mexico team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
New Mexico State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.