SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 1

Tarleton StateatBowling Green

Sat, Sep. 5 · 12:00 PM ET · Doyt L. Perry Stadium

Tarleton State20
Bowling Green13
CALLED

SharpTake projected Tarleton State at 53%. Tarleton State won.

ProjectedBowling Green by 4.5
ActualTarleton State by 7
Difference11.5 pts
Market spreadBowling Green -2.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Bowling Green -2.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Tarleton State to win.

Tarleton StateProjected winner
53%Win probability
Bowling Green by 4.5Projected margin

Mixed model signals: win probability leans Tarleton State, while the projected margin points to Bowling Green. The win-probability signal remains primary; both outputs are shown as produced.

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Team reads

Bowling Green team readHow this team wins and where it is exposed.

Position rooms

Bowling Green position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 5, 2026 · 12:00 PM ET

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