Overall team quality
Ohio offset
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans South Alabama
South Alabama's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors South Alabama. South Alabama also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and recent scoring performance, while Ohio's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
South Alabama advantage
Current season's scoring performance
South Alabama advantage
Recent scoring performance
South Alabama advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
South Alabama finishing drives
EDGESouth Alabama offenseOhio defense
South Alabama scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while Ohio allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.01 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.83 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Run game
NO EDGEOhio offenseSouth Alabama defense
Ohio gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while South Alabama allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 44.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGEOhio offenseSouth Alabama defense
Ohio gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while South Alabama allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 45.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 39.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Ohio team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
South Alabama team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.