Down-to-down efficiency
Ball State offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Ball StateatKent State
Ball State13
Kent State26
CALLED
SharpTake projected Kent State at 54%. Kent State won.
ProjectedKent State by 2.0
ActualKent State by 13
Difference11.0 pts
Market spreadKent State -2.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Ball State +2.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Ball State 46%Kent State 54%
SharpTake projects Kent State to win.
Kent StateProjected winner
54%Win probability
Kent State by 2.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Kent State
Kent State's big-play ability is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Kent State. Ball State's down-to-down efficiency pushes the other way.
Current season's scoring performance
Ball State offset
Big-play ability
Slight Kent State advantage
Last season's results
Ball State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Ball State pass game
EDGEBall State offenseKent State defense
Ball State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Kent State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kent State.
Passing Success Rate · 31.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEKent State offenseBall State defense
Kent State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Ball State allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 34.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGEKent State offenseBall State defense
Kent State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Ball State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 33.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Ball State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Kent State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.