SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4

MassachusettsatSacramento State

Sat, Sep. 26 · 9:00 PM ET · Hornet Stadium

Massachusetts35
Sacramento State6
MISSED

SharpTake projected Sacramento State at 58%. Massachusetts won.

ProjectedSacramento State by 4.0
ActualMassachusetts by 29
Difference33.0 pts
Market spreadMassachusetts -4.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Sacramento State +4.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Sacramento State to win.

Sacramento StateProjected winner
58%Win probability
Sacramento State by 4.0Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans Sacramento State

Sacramento State's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Sacramento State. Sacramento State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and overall quality, while Massachusetts's record from last season pushes the other way.

Current season's results

Strong Sacramento State advantage

Last season's results

Massachusetts offset

Down-to-down efficiency

Sacramento State advantage

Overall team quality

Sacramento State advantage

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Matchup factors unavailable

Completed 2025 matchup evidence is unavailable for at least one team in this matchup.

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Massachusetts team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Sacramento State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Massachusetts position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Sacramento State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
  • At least one team lacks a usable prior season under this forecast model; the model's neutral prior treatment is used.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 26, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET

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