Overall team quality
Strong Toledo advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
ToledoatBall State
Toledo39
Ball State24
CALLED
SharpTake projected Toledo at 90%. Toledo won.
ProjectedToledo by 20.5
ActualToledo by 15
Difference5.5 pts
Market spreadToledo -21
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Ball State +21
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Toledo 90%Ball State 10%
SharpTake projects Toledo to win.
ToledoProjected winner
90%Win probability
Toledo by 20.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Toledo
Toledo's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Toledo. Toledo also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Ball State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Toledo advantage
Current season's results
Ball State offset
Current season's scoring performance
Toledo advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Ball State staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEBall State offenseToledo defense
Ball State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Offensive Success Rate · 32.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 33.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Ball State pass game
CLEAR EDGEBall State offenseToledo defense
Ball State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Passing Success Rate · 31.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 28.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Toledo disruption vs Ball State
CLEAR EDGEBall State disruption allowedToledo disruption created
Ball State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Havoc Rate allowed · 21.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 20.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Toledo team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Ball State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.