Current season's results
Eastern Michigan offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Eastern MichiganatMassachusetts
Eastern Michigan38
Massachusetts14
MISSED
SharpTake projected Massachusetts at 75%. Eastern Michigan won.
ProjectedMassachusetts by 10.0
ActualEastern Michigan by 24
Difference34.0 pts
Market spreadMassachusetts -5.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Massachusetts -5.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Eastern Michigan 25%Massachusetts 75%
SharpTake projects Massachusetts to win.
MassachusettsProjected winner
75%Win probability
Massachusetts by 10.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Massachusetts
Massachusetts's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Massachusetts. Massachusetts also has the edge in recent scoring performance and current season's scoring performance, while Eastern Michigan's current season's results pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Massachusetts advantage
Recent scoring performance
Massachusetts advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Massachusetts advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Massachusetts disruption vs Eastern Michigan
CLEAR EDGEEastern Michigan disruption allowedMassachusetts disruption created
Eastern Michigan avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Massachusetts creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Eastern Michigan.
Havoc Rate allowed · 13.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 8.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Eastern Michigan staying on schedule
EDGEEastern Michigan offenseMassachusetts defense
Eastern Michigan gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Massachusetts allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Eastern Michigan.
Offensive Success Rate · 43.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 48.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Massachusetts run game
EDGEMassachusetts offenseEastern Michigan defense
Massachusetts gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Eastern Michigan allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Eastern Michigan.
Rushing Success Rate · 33.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 44.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Eastern Michigan team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Massachusetts team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.