Overall team quality
Strong Ohio advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
OhioatKent State
Ohio13
Kent State10
CALLED
SharpTake projected Ohio at 78%. Ohio won.
ProjectedOhio by 12.5
ActualOhio by 3
Difference9.5 pts
Market spreadOhio -3.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Ohio -3.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Ohio 78%Kent State 22%
SharpTake projects Ohio to win.
OhioProjected winner
78%Win probability
Ohio by 12.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Ohio
Ohio's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Ohio. Ohio also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Kent State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Ohio advantage
Last season's results
Kent State offset
Running-game efficiency
Ohio advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Kent State staying on schedule
EDGEKent State offenseOhio defense
Kent State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Ohio allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Ohio.
Offensive Success Rate · 34.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Kent State run game
EDGEKent State offenseOhio defense
Kent State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Ohio allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Ohio.
Rushing Success Rate · 33.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Kent State disruption vs Ohio
EDGEOhio disruption allowedKent State disruption created
Ohio avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Kent State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Ohio team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Kent State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.