Overall team quality
Strong Toledo advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
BuffaloatToledo
Buffalo23
Toledo8
MISSED
SharpTake projected Toledo at 92%. Buffalo won.
ProjectedToledo by 22.0
ActualBuffalo by 15
Difference37.0 pts
Market spreadToledo -18.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Toledo -18.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Buffalo 8%Toledo 92%
SharpTake projects Toledo to win.
ToledoProjected winner
92%Win probability
Toledo by 22.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Toledo
Toledo's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Toledo. Toledo also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Buffalo's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Toledo advantage
Current season's results
Buffalo offset
Current season's scoring performance
Toledo advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Buffalo staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEBuffalo offenseToledo defense
Buffalo gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 33.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Buffalo pass game
CLEAR EDGEBuffalo offenseToledo defense
Buffalo gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Passing Success Rate · 38.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 28.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Buffalo explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEBuffalo offenseToledo defense
Buffalo creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.164Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.129Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Buffalo team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Toledo team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.